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Polish writer Tom Wojcik’s report, using figures through September 26, traces how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into oil prices, fuel availability and risks to food supplies. It also describes pressure on European potato harvests and Poland’s exposure to energy shocks. Several claims and figures are presented in the source report, while the excerpt provided does not include its full ending or supporting links for every claim.
Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report describes how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil markets and raising risks for fuel, food supplies and winter heating, including in Poland. The account uses figures through September 26 and presents the effects as connected pressures, while some forecasts and claims remain dependent on events still unfolding.
Wojcik writes that US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since March, using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. He cites tanker traffic through the strait falling by more than 90 percent and says the International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest the oil market has experienced. The source excerpt does not include links to the underlying statements.
The report says a summer ceasefire briefly brought oil prices back to pre-war levels before breaking down. It places Brent crude near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and at $108 on September 24. It also says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade; Washington rejected it, according to Wojcik.
Wojcik connects the disruption to shipping costs and fuel supply. He reports that the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. He notes that the fund is small and its manager says rates could fall if the strait reopens. In France, he cites official figures showing 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government, he says, ruled out a national shortage.
Fuel Shocks Reach Food and Heating
The report’s central point is that an energy shock can spread beyond drivers and oil traders. Fertiliser shipments affect what farmers can grow, while diesel is used to move food. Wojcik cites the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warning that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those are projected effects, not a report of harvest losses already caused by the closure.
For readers in Poland, the connection is also domestic: Wojcik describes a country that relies on coal and imported gas for heating and is financing military spending while bordering the war in Ukraine. If fuel or gas remains costly or hard to obtain as winter approaches, households and governments may face tougher choices. The excerpt does not provide a quantified forecast for Polish heating bills or supply levels.
Poland Between Two Energy Risks
Wojcik frames the Gulf conflict alongside Russia’s war against Ukraine. He says Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, citing the IEA, and that Russian refining output has fallen to a two-decade low. He also reports that Moscow restricted fuel exports and that half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants reduced or halted output during September. These figures are attributed in the report, but the excerpt supplied here does not include the cited source documents.
The report also points to a domestic agricultural swing. It says Polish growers harvested about 7 million tonnes of potatoes in 2025, 18 percent more than the year before, leaving some farmers selling below cost by spring. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less, according to Wojcik. After heatwaves and drought, their organisation projected a harvest 25 percent lower. The excerpt ends while discussing wheat prices, so it does not establish the full scale of the grain-market effects.
“The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies”
— Tom Wojcik, author of the report
Supply Risks Still Depend on Events
The report gives a fast-moving picture, but the supplied excerpt does not include its complete article or all source links. It is not possible from this material to independently verify each cited figure or the reported diplomatic exchanges. The duration of the Hormuz closure, any renewed military action, and the timing of a reopening remain unsettled.
Forecasts of lower harvests and increased food insecurity are risks rather than final outcomes. The report cites the World Food Programme estimate that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity, but the excerpt does not specify the estimate’s full assumptions or time period. It also does not give a quantified outlook for Poland’s winter gas supply, heating costs or household impact.
Watch the Strait and Harvests
The immediate indicators in Wojcik’s account are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, whether diplomacy produces a ceasefire, and whether oil prices remain elevated. Any change could affect shipping costs and fuel markets, though the report’s cited tanker-fund manager says rates could fall if the strait reopens.
Over the coming months, harvest results and fertiliser availability will show whether the projected food-supply pressure materialises. For Poland and other European countries, winter energy supply and prices will be key measures of how far the shock reaches. The source material supplied does not state a scheduled diplomatic meeting, formal next report date or confirmed policy response.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since March, disrupting tanker traffic and contributing to pressure on oil markets. He traces possible effects on fuel, fertiliser, food supplies and winter heating.
How high did Brent crude rise in September?
Wojcik places Brent near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and at $108 on September 24. The report’s figures describe those points in time, not a settled price for the rest of the month.
Was France running out of fuel?
The report says 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, while the government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik attributes many outages to demand at TotalEnergies stations, which capped petrol prices; the cited measure counts a station only when it is out of all petrol grades or diesel.
What is the reported risk to food supplies?
The report cites the FAO warning that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The forecast describes a risk; the excerpt does not establish the final effect on harvests.
What remains uncertain for Poland?
The excerpt does not quantify Poland’s expected winter gas supply, heating costs or household exposure. Those outcomes will depend on energy prices, supply conditions and how long the disruption continues.
Source: hn
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